Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Bolt Gets Fact

Again Andrew uses very short term data to try and counter any predictions that Tim Flannery has made relating to water, specifically rainfall. This time he uses one week’s rainfall to counter an argument relating to long term shortfalls in rainfall. Bolt’s constant use of short history (how cold is it outside?) type arguments to counter long term trends will make any of his climate change arguments look insipid.

Here is Andrew’s in depth analysis:

Let’s revisit yet another prediction of Alarmist of the Year Tim Flannery:
Speaking last night at the State Government’s Sydney Futures forum, Dr Flannery warned of a city grappling with up to 60 per cent less water. As temperatures around the world warmed by 2 to 7 per cent, Sydney could glimpse its future by looking at
the devastating impact that global warming had already had on Perth… ”I think
there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis
,” Dr Flannery said.

The ABC reported yesterday:

Wet November:

Record rainfall in Perth has led to the November average being
reached just six days into the month; it’s the wettest start to November since

(No link. Thanks to reader David in Perth.)

And of course it is linked by Tim Blair.

Let’s look at some facts for a change. The BoM data indicates the following:

At Perth Airport the Average Annual Rainfall is 779.3mm

Out of the last 10 years the total annual rainfall has exceeded the average twice. With the highest being 820.0mm or 5% above average. The lowest being 479.6mm in 2006 which is in line with the annual climate summary for Perth:

Annual rainfall - below average: Perth's annual rainfall for 2007 was 703.0 mm on 117 days, compared with the long-term average of 856 mm on about 111 days. In 2006, Perth recorded its driest year on record with 466.8 mm on 97 days.
Perth's wettest month in 2007 was July with 179.4 mm on 19 days, 9.4 mm above the average of 170 mm. The wettest day in 2007 was 16 April with 40.4 mm.

And how much rainfall has Perth actually had during November?

Just 29.4mm.

Not exactly drought breaking. I am sure Tim Flannery is shaking in his waders.

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